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（中央社記者潘智義台北4日電）希臘6月底到期債務未還，5日公投決定是否接受歐盟紓困條件。富蘭克林投顧指出，不論公投結果如何，歐盟都已有準備，應不至於像前些年歐債風波嚴重。

富蘭克林投顧分析，若公投結果同意紓困方案占多數，希臘政府與國際債權人可能重啟協商；若公投拒絕紓困，希臘可能脫離歐元區，短期內雖然會衝擊金融市場，但長期來看，仍在可控制範圍。

如果希臘公投同意紓困，富蘭克林投顧認為，國際債權人可能考慮依 6月25日原提案，延長希臘紓困計畫至11月底，並分4次提供合計約155億歐元紓困金；現任總理齊普拉斯面臨下台壓力，可能重新舉行國會選舉。

雖然公投結果出爐前風險性資產承受壓力，但歐洲央行進場購債，有助舒緩短線恐慌情緒及擴散風險。因此，若公投同意紓困，希臘與國際債權人重啟談判，降低違約及退出歐元區風險，有助金融市場反彈。

當然，若希臘須國會重選，金融市場震盪整理時間拉長，下檔空間應可逐漸收斂。

如果希臘公投拒絕紓困計畫者占多數。富蘭克林投顧評估，歐洲央行可能終止對希臘銀行體系的緊急流動性援助（ELA），希臘發行德拉克馬平行貨幣，及脫離歐元區機率升高。

因此，若希臘拒絕紓困，全球風險性資產短線劇烈震盪。富蘭克林投顧認為，希臘占歐元區國內生產毛額（GDP）比重僅2%，加上歐盟近年來建構防火牆機制漸趨完善，歐洲央行購債計畫可望控制擴散風險，實際衝擊仍屬可控範圍。1040704

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Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, center, speaks to the media after voting at a polling station in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks began voting early Sunday in a closely-watched, ．．． 較多Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, center, speaks to the media after voting at a polling station in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks began voting early Sunday in a closely-watched, closely-contested referendum, which the government pits as a choice over whether to defy the country's creditors and push for better repayment terms or essentially accept their terms, but which the opposition and many of the creditors paint as a choice between staying in the euro or leaving it. (AP Photo/Spyros Tsakiris) 較少









信貸增貸問題 信貸增貸條件 信貸增貸率

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Associated Press | 拍攝者 Spyros Tsakiris





2015年7月5日週日 台北標準時間下午4時09分





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